When in Doubt, Blame the Weather

Ryan Dressel Ryan Dressel, Investment Analyst, Brinker Capital

The 2013-2014 winter has been nothing short of a worse-case scenario for the eastern half of the U.S. In Chicago, temperatures fell below zero an astounding 22 times (the Chicago record for a winter is 25), and let’s not forget the combined 67 inches of snow. In Atlanta, the city literally came to a halt during what became known as “Icepocalypse.” In Philadelphia, we’ve seen a total of 58 inches of snow (third highest on record) including 11 different snow storms dropping one inch or more.[1]

Source: TheAtlantic.com

Source: TheAtlantic.com

Those three locales give you a pretty good idea of just how wide spread the wrath of winter is this year. While it is difficult to measure the exact impact of the weather on the economy, we can conclude that economic activity will certainly lag in January, February and March. Despite the fact that most economic indices account for seasonal effects, they do not account for outlier years like this one. Weather has been blamed for poor economic reports ranging from job growth, to new housing starts, to manufacturing—but is it justified?

A 2010 study by the American Meteorological Society determined which U.S. states are most sensitive to extreme weather variability as it relates to economic output.[2]

Dressel_Weather_2.21.14_1The research concluded that the location with the most sensitive industries had the largest total economic effect. For example, agriculture is the most sensitive on an absolute basis, but the fact that agriculture makes up such a small percentage of most states’ Gross State Product (GSP) means that extreme weather has a small total effect on sensitivity. Conversely, manufacturing, financial services, and real estate have a large relative sensitivity because of their GSP impact. As you can see on the map, the states where these industries have a significant economic impact, translates in higher sensitivity to extreme weather.

The severity of winter in the states colored red and yellow justifies the weather-related hype, while the ones in blue can be ignored for economic purposes. If you include the effects of the Government shutdown, we’ve had four consecutive months of cloudy data that we can’t put into clear context!

[1] National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
[2] U.S. Economic Sensitivity to Weather Variability. Jeffrey K. Lazo, Megan Lawson, Peter Larsen, Donald Waldman. December 28, 2010.

Brinker Capital and eMoney Advisor Sponsor Philadelphia Wings Lacrosse Match And Auction To Benefit Wounded Veterans

Conshohoken, Pa. – January 16, 2013 – Brinker Capital, Inc., a leading investment management firm, has teamed up with eMoney Advisor (“eMoney”), the only wealth-planning system for financial advisors that offers transparency, security, mobile access and superior organization for everything that impacts their clients’ financial lives, and the Philadelphia Wings professional lacrosse team to sponsor an American Heroes celebration benefitting wounded armed forces veterans.

The Philadelphia Wings will host the Calgary Roughnecks at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia on Sunday, January 27, 2013 at 4 p.m. Commemorative camouflage jerseys provided by Brinker Capital and eMoney will be worn by the players during the game and auctioned off after the game to raise money for the Wounded Warrior Project, a non-profit organization that seeks to empower and honor injured veterans.

“The Wounded Warrior Project plays an important role in reintegrating injured veterans into civilian life,” said Chuck Widger, Executive Chairman, Brinker Capital. “By attending the American Heroes event, the residents of Philadelphia and the surrounding metropolitan area can help this organization continue its life-enhancing work with wounded veterans and their families.”

“It is our duty as Americans to recognize the tremendous sacrifices made by our veterans, especially those who have been injured in the line of duty,” said Michael Zebrowski, Chief Operating Officer, eMoney, a former Marine who served in the Persian Gulf War. “We take the Wounded Warrior Project’s motto, ‘The greatest casualty is being forgotten,’ to heart by ensuring our community never forgets the brave men and women who risked their lives to protect us.”

This is the latest endeavor in the firms’ ongoing commitment to veterans. They co-sponsored a previous American Heroes celebration during a Philadelphia Wings game on January 21, 2012. In addition, on December 7, 2012, eMoney sponsored the Be a Hero-Hire a Hero Career Expo at Philadelphia’s National Constitution Center to help qualified veterans and their family members find employment.

Tickets are available at www.wingsLAX.com or by calling (215) 389-WING.

About Brinker Capital
Brinker Capital, Inc. is a leading investment management firm which provides managed account investment programs to individual and institutional investors through financial advisors. Brinker was founded in 1987 by Charles Widger and is located in suburban Philadelphia. Learn more at http://www.brinkercapital.com and http://www.twitter.com/BrinkerCapital.

About eMoney Advisor, LLC
eMoney Advisor, LLC, (eMoney), based in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, is the only wealth-planning system for financial advisors that offers transparency, security, mobile access and superior organization for everything that impacts their clients’ financial lives. Our award-winning, web-based services and resources are designed to transform the advisor’s ability to implement comprehensive financial plans and prepare clients for a secure financial future.