Sentiment

Jeff RauppJeff Raupp, CFA, Senior Investment Manager

In February 1637, tulip bulbs sold in Holland for as much as 4,000 guilders each, over 10x the amount a skilled craftsman would earn in a year.  Months later, many tulip traders found themselves holding bulbs worth just a fraction of what they had paid for.

As crazy as prices got, tulip mania actually started with good fundamentals. Tulips were a relatively new introduction to Europe, and the flower’s intense color made it a heavily-desired feature of upper-class gardens. Most desirable were the exotic-looking, multi-colored tulips, which was caused by a mosaic virus not identified until the 1970s and now called the “tulip-breaking virus.” At best, tulip bulbs weren’t easy to produce and those with the virus suffered even lower reproduction rates. In the beginning, what occurred in the tulip market was classic supply and demand—a highly sought-after item with limited supply increasing in price. In 1634, that started to change as 11.1.13_Raupp_Sentimentspeculators were attracted to the rising prices, and in late 1636 prices started to accelerate rapidly, to where even single-color tulips were attracting prices of over 100 guilders apiece. The Dutch created a futures market for tulips that enabled traders to purchase and trade contracts to buy bulbs at the end of the season. At the peak, tulips could be traded several times a day without any physical tulips actually being exchanged or either party ever having any intention of planting the bulbs.

Then in February 1637, buyers vanished. Some suspect an outbreak of the bubonic plague as the cause, some a change in demand caused by war in Europe. Any way you look at it, the sentiment for the future price of tulip bulbs took a big U-turn, leaving many investors ruined.[1]

11.1.13_Raupp_Sentiment_1History is full of similar episodes, where investor sentiment got to extreme levels and prices diverged meaningfully from the underlying fundamental value of something, be it stocks, real estate, currency, or even tulip bulbs. Most recently the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s and the housing bubble in 2008 proved that speculation is alive and well.

While periods of extreme sentiment are easy to identify in retrospect, they’re anything but obvious while you’re in them. And while extreme levels of sentiment usually result in big price reversals, more modest levels can mark periods when the market is overbought or oversold, often followed by a market pull-back or rally. Recently, Robert Shiller of Yale University won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on irrational markets.

11.1.13_Raupp_Sentiment_2So how can you gauge sentiment? Some of the more popular ones are the Consumer Confidence Index and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which both try to gauge consumer’s attitudes on a variety of things, including future spending, the business climate, and their level of optimism or pessimism. More direct, and generally more volatile, are the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index, which ask investors directly about their thoughts on investments. It doesn’t end there. Investors watch Closed-End Fund discounts, Put/Call ratios, even tracking the occurrence of certain words or phrases in the media. In addition, many firms create their own blend of surveys and indexes to best gauge the overall sentiment level.

Sentiment certainly isn’t the be-all, end-all for trading your portfolio. There’s a saying that is attributed to John Maynard Keynes, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” When sentiment starts moving in one direction, it’s hard to say when the reversal will occur and what will cause it. But knowing where sentiment levels are at any given time can help you get a better understanding of what markets have been doing and what to expect going forward.


[1] Mackay, Charles (1841), Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, London: Richard Bentley, archived from the original on March 31, 2008.

The Law of Unintended Consequences

Andy RosenbergerAndrew Rosenberger, CFA, Brinker Capital

History is littered with examples of “unintended consequences” – a term referring to the fact that decision makers (and more importantly, policymakers) tend to make decisions that later have unforeseen outcomes.  I was reminded of such a fact this weekend as my wife and I launched into our annual (and seemingly unending) springtime yard cleanup.   In addition to the mulching, planting, trimming, and other routine undertakings associated with yard maintenance, every year, we spend more time and money than I care to admit trying to rid our yard of the dreaded English Ivy.  As any other homeowner with a similar problem can sympathize with, there is no amount of weed killer, weed-whacking or online product remedies that seem to tackle the problem.  Our English Ivy problem is the unintended consequence of the prior homeowners’ decision to turn their yard into an “English Garden”.

On a much grander scale, unintended consequences pop up everywhere.  Most go unnoticed by the broader public.  As one such example, The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article titled “U.S. Ethanol Mandate Puts Squeeze on Oil Refiners”.  The article highlighted that consumers could see higher prices at the pump due to government enacted mandates that force refiners to purchase market-based ethanol credits.  The original idea was that increasing the amount of ethanol used in gasoline would make gasoline cleaner burning and be better for the environment.  However, since the policy was enacted, two unforeseen issues have unfolded.  First, prices for these ethanol-based credits have skyrocketed in the past few months.  The higher ethanol credit prices mean that refiners will be forced to pass along higher prices for gasoline to the end consumer.  Second, automakers are suggesting that cars and trucks aren’t well equipped to burn the new gasoline blend.  As a result, we have a policy that was intended to produce cleaner burning gasoline which ultimately turned into higher gas prices for a product which most cars aren’t able to use.

consequencesThe reality is that the vast majority of consumers will never be informed of policy misstep.  Only industry experts and select individuals with knowledge of the matter will truly understand the costs involved.  Sometimes; however, unintended consequences have a much more visible impact on the broader economy.  That’s been the case over the past two weeks as policymakers have tried to tackle the banking problems in Cyprus.  If we rewind to last year, Greece was the conversation of topic.  Ultimately, policymakers decided that private sector bond holders should bear the brunt of the losses on Greek debt.  Fast forward to today and we have insolvent Cyprus banks.  Why?  Because Cyprus banks, which were one of the largest holders of Greek debt, were forced to write-down their assets.  So while at the time the policy of having private sector investors take the loss on Greek debt seemed like a good idea, ultimately the unintended consequence was that it would later result in Cyprus banks becoming woefully undercapitalized.

The European Union’s response to the Cyprus banking issue was subsequently just as perplexing.  As initially proposed, depositors, regardless of their size, would be taxed to cover the insolvency of the local banks.  Ultimately, while the policy was later reversed to preserve deposits below €100,000, the sanctity of small deposits suddenly disappeared.  Most market pundits will agree that Cyprus is too small and irrelevant in the grand scheme of things to bring down the European economy.  I worry, however, that the unintended consequence of Europe’s policy response will make depositors in other peripheral countries a bit more anxious when it comes to where they store their money for safekeeping.  After all, one of the tenants within economics is that if two investments have equal return, investors will choose the one with lesser risk.  With interest rates near 0% across the developed world, wouldn’t it make the most sense for depositors to store their wealth in a place with little chance of future default?  While we often like to believe that these matters are completely thought through and weighed carefully by policymakers, unfortunately, this most recent policy decision appears to driven more for domestic political purposes as opposed to European “Union” driven.

Economic Headwinds and Tailwinds

We continue to approach our macro view as a balance between cyclical tailwinds and more structural headwinds. While we have seen some improvement in the economy and strong global equity markets, helped by easy monetary policy, we continue to face global macro risks and uncertainties. The unresolved risks could result in bouts of market volatility. As a result, portfolios have a modest defensive bias, and are focused on high conviction opportunities within asset classes.

To read more, click here

turbines

Concerns Over “Fiscal Cliff” Continue to Dominate Markets

Joe Preisser

The sharp selloff in global equity markets that, through Thursday, had sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down almost 6% since the reelection of President Obama, brings into stark relief the depth of the concerns among market participants over the looming “fiscal cliff” in the United States and the potential impact on the global economy if it is not averted.  With the compilation of automatic spending cuts and tax increases totaling more than $600 billion which comprise the so called, “cliff”, scheduled to take effect in January, unless an accord can be reached to forestall it, investors have quickly begun to pare back their exposure to risk based assets.  As Amy Magnotta pointed out in her most recent blog post, the effects of a failure of policy makers in Washington to reach an agreement would be severe, resulting in a  4 percent drop in Gross Domestic Product and casting the world’s largest economy back into recession.  Marko Kolanovic, the Global Head of derivatives and quantitative strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co. was quoted by Bloomberg News, “about 90 percent of the drop in the S&P 500 since election day can be attributed to concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff.”

The divided government, which remains in the United States following the Nov 6th elections, with a Democratically controlled White House and strengthened position in the Senate, and a continued Republican hold on the House of Representatives, has led to a continuation of the stalemate that has gripped the Capital for much of the past two years.   Although the representation of differing philosophies and governing styles is essential to a functioning democracy, the current environment inside the ‘beltway’ has degenerated to the point of stagnation.  Neither side of the proverbial ‘aisle’ appears, at least publically, willing to compromise with Republicans declaring their resolve to avoid tax rate increases of any kind, and Democrats extolling the need to increase the percentage paid by the top income earners in the country.  It is impossible to know how much of the recent rhetoric is simply political posturing and how much represents entrenched positions, but what is evident is that it has created an atmosphere of uncertainty which financial markets abhor. One potential area of concession, that has lately developed, is the rate of increase Democrats are seeking.  Although it had been earlier suggested that a return to the 39.6% level last seen under President Bill Clinton was all that would be accepted, that stance has softened in recent days,(Strategas Research Partners), suggesting that a smaller increase could be where an accord is found.

As I am writing this morning, leaders from both political parties are preparing to meet at the White House to begin negotiations on bridging the gap that divides them.  If they are successful in their efforts and common ground is reached, even on a temporary basis, which is the most plausible scenario, we should see a strong rebound across financial markets.  While the process of resolving the differences that separate the two sides of this debate will undoubtedly take time and potentially create turbulence in the marketplace, if our policy makers can fulfill their responsibilities and find a resolution to this issue it will greatly strengthen the recovery in the global economy and lead to a substantive rally in risk based assets.

The Implications Of The 2012 Presidential Election

This Tuesday marked the end of the 2012 Presidential Election campaign, with Barack Obama heading back to the White House.  In a campaign marked by elements of vitriol and an astronomical amount of money spent, most experts ballpark it around $6 billion in total, the results were status quo.   Republicans maintained their majority in the House, while the Democrats, after picking up a few surprise seats, remain in control of the Senate and Presidency.

As the new(ish) regime begins to game-plan for the next four years, a number of issues to address lay in wait.  The first, and potentially most significant, is the fiscal cliff the government must face before January 1, 2013.  With the Bush-era tax cuts expiring in conjunction with spending cuts, the U.S. economy will see about a 4% drag on GDP, forcing policymakers to address the looming recession.  The most likely scenario is an extension of most of the provisions already in place, which would result in a drag on GDP closer to 1%.

A key proponent in all of this is a compromise of tax increases on high-income earners—a significant area of compromise for President Obama. It would seem that the majority of investors are anticipating such a short-term deal to take place, but if no deal is signed before the end of the year, the market will react to the disappointment.

Next on tap for the President is a defined, long-term fiscal package. And while it will be a difficult task with a split government, it has been done before.  It is important for investors to have a roadmap to address our fiscal issues as it would reduce uncertainties, provide businesses and consumers with a higher level of confidence, and ultimately spend and contribute to positive growth. One strong point here is our high demand for U.S. Treasuries, even at current low rates.

With possible changes facing the Federal Reserve and tax increases, we are faced with a number of uncertainties.  We’ve crossed the election off our list of concerns and now turn our heads to the fiscal cliff. So as we head into year end, we will prepare for market volatility while keeping a close eye on what Congress is planning.

Becoming an Obvious Expert Beverly D. Flaxington for Brinker Capital

One of the best ways for financial advisors to generate new business is to become “known”. Known as the expert, as the advisor with insights, and as the person who has something important to say. Many investors like to work with someone they perceive as knowledgeable and well-rounded.
How best to become an obvious expert? The first important piece is to be seen and heard. This can be done through using a PR (public relations) strategy and through social media. PR includes things like being interviewed on radio and television, being written about in newspapers and periodicals, and issuing press releases or other news stories. Social media includes things like LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook, and means engaging in online discussion and information boards to talk about your expertise.
Some advisors shy away from the media because they don’t know what to say. As a first step, think about what interesting angles you can address relative to important topics in the news. Don’t limit your thinking to just the stock and bond market movements; think about trends for retirees and/or divorcees, multi-generational issues, or any other newsworthy trend that can connect back to your process or philosophy with regard to investing or planning.
Consider some of the following to establish your credibility as the obvious expert:
(1) Radio and television interviews are “free” advertising. Read and watch different journalists and reporters. Find out what they often report on. Write an email or a note to respond to some information they’ve given and your angle on their story. Make friends with your local media. Reporters and journalists are looking for new, fresh angles all the time.
(2) If you want to put more effort into it, consider doing your own blog talk radio show. You can pay a nominal fee to get set up on one of the major networks such as Live365 or blogtalkradio. With your own show you are responsible for coming up with content for each program, but you can always leverage other relationships such as COIs (Centers of Influence) like realtors, attorneys or accountants. Having your own show means you would be the interviewer instead of the interviewee. However, it allows you to get your thoughts and ideas across to an audience each week or month, depending on the show schedule.
(3) Create audio or video recordings of any interviews you have, or just record yourself telling case stories about how you work with clients. Circulate the audio or video to the press and also post it on your website.
(4) Issue a press release about something interesting happening at your firm. This could be the launch of a new website, a new angle on your service offerings, or a new hire to your firm. Anything happening at your firm can be newsworthy. Send press releases out over many of the free services available, such as this or this
(5) Engage in social media. As you pursue relationships with the younger generation (i.e. anyone under 40 years of age), they will immediately search you out on Google or some other engine to find whatever they can about you. It’s imperative to have a presence of some kind. Have an updated LinkedIn account, follow people on Twitter or create an account, if your compliance department allows it. Have a blog if you can, or at minimum post to other’s blogs when you have a response or idea to share.
Put a focus on becoming known, being seen and staying out in the public eye.

There are many opportunities to do so. Consider the ones that are right for your practice.

Understanding Behavioral Style in Developing New Business – Part 2 by Bev Flaxington

In Part 1 of this two-part blog on behavioral selling, we discussed how behavior style impacts communication and why it is crucial for the successful advisor, business development representative or client services person to understand this science. Now, in Part 2, we give some sales examples.

If an advisor learns how to identify her or his own behavioral style, and learns all the nuances around it, he or she can learn the styles of buyers and influencers. Then, he or she can adapt their behavioral style to increase the probability of true connection with prospects and for developing long-term relationships – even with people very different from themselves. For business development people, this leads to an increased ability to close more business with new and existing prospects and clients. For client service folks, this means the ability to manage a long-term relationship even when there’s no real “click” of personalities.

In Part 1 we described the four styles – D for Dominance, I for Influencing, S for Steadiness and C for Compliance. Everyone has a “core” style, e.g. one dominant style out of these four; having determined that your prospect or client prominently displays the characteristics of one, your objective is to communicate with him or her accordingly. Here are some characteristics of each and how you’d approach them.

“D” – Interested in new & unique services or products; very “results” focused; makes quick decisions
“I” – Interested in showy and flashy products; focused on the “experience” (is it, or does it allow for, fun!); makes quick decisions
“S” – Interested in traditional products; very trusting and is looking for trust; is slow in decision making
“C” – Interested in proven, time-tested products; needs and seeks information; is very slow in decision making

As an example of communicating based on this knowledge, we’ll take the “I”. We’ll call this client Mr. Jones. He, like other core “I”s, is effusive and upbeat – an extrovert. They have a high need to verbalize ideas and their key emotion is optimism. Their expectations of others are high and their conflict response is to run away. Their stress reliever is interaction and socializing with people. Descriptors for them include inspiring, persuasive and trusting.

To further help you determine what core style you’re dealing with, there are four communication factors that are giveaways for each of the four styles. These factors are 1) Tone of Voice, 2) Pace of Speech and Action, 3) Words Used and 4) Body Language. In our example, how can you tell you’re interacting with a core “I”? Key on the communication factors for instant clues:
• Tone of Voice – it will be energized, enthusiastic, friendly and colorful
• Pace of Speech and Action – s/he will exhibit fast speech and fast action, and be fast toward people
• Words Used – fun, excitement, immediate, now, today, new and unique
• Body Language – you’ll feel the fast pace, the fast movement and orientation toward people.

Now that you’ve identified Mr. Jones as a high “I”, you must calibrate your own natural style for communicating with him. So if you are, say, a high “C” – as many advisors are – you need to make sure that you pick up your pace a bit, smile and nod your head to show that you’re fully engaged with the high “I,” keep the focus on them and ask questions, respond to their small talk and give them as much time as possible to verbalize. For a core “C” (or “S”) advisor, this can be exhausting – but you can relax after the meeting, which will be more successful if you adapt!

By taking the time to listen, observe and ask good questions, advisors can discern the behavior style of prospects and clients – and open whole new relational opportunities in the process. Next time, we’ll discuss some of the questions you can ask to help you determine style.

Understanding Behavioral Style in Developing New Business – Part 1 by Bev Flaxington

Have you ever been taken completely by surprise by a client or prospect? Or have you ever been unable to close a sale because you just couldn’t “get through” to them? Today, investors are being bombarded by so many advisors and business development people – all trying to connect and persuade them to become clients. However, one of the most fundamental ways to connect with prospects is often overlooked by those in a selling role: understanding behavioral styles and adapting one’s communication approach to the people s/he’s trying to persuade.

You may have at one time taken a training course on relationship-building, face-to-face selling skills, or something similar, but the key to understanding the buyer’s perspective necessarily begins with an understanding of behavioral style. This is because behavioral style is the crux of understanding communication style – and true communication is the key to developing great relationships in both your personal and professional life.
So, is it really true that your likelihood of signing new clients could come down to your behavioral style? Research conducted in 1984 and validated again every year since has proven three things: 1) people buy from people with similar behavioral styles to their own, 2) people in a selling type of role tend to gravitate towards people with behavioral styles similar to their own, and 3) if people in a selling or business development type role adapt their behavioral style to that of the prospect, sales increase.

Many advisors, business development and client service personnel have excellent communication skills, but have difficulty in relationships with prospects and clients – and don’t understand why. Something just doesn’t feel right, but they’re not sure how to diagnose the problem or modify their behavior for greater success. Often times, it’s not technique (i.e. the questions asked, presentation or negotiating skills, etc.) but rather a lack of understanding of one’s own behavioral style and motivators, and of knowing that behavioral differences can cause significant communication difficulties that hamstring closing a prospect or an ongoing relationship with clients.
One scientific way to understand behavioral style is through an assessment called DISC (Dominance, Influencing, Steadiness, Compliance). Based upon the work of Carl Jung, the DISC approach was invented by William Moulton Marston, inventor of the lie detector and holder of a Harvard MBA, over 80 years ago. The statistically based profiles show a person’s preferred styles on four scales of behavior – Problems, People, Pace and Procedures:

• Dominance (“D” factor) How one handles problems and challenges
• Influence (“I” factor) How one handles people and influences others
• Steadiness (“S” factor) How one handles work environment, change and pace
• Compliance (“C” factor) How one handles rules and procedures set by others

Depending on our differences in style and approach, we can either get along very easily together (because we’re so much alike!) or we can have significant clashes in our relationship.

A person’s behavioral preferences have everything to do with their communication approach and style. People who operate with very different styles have a difficult time “hearing” one another and communicating effectively. For instance, if I communicate only within my own behavioral comfort zone, I will only be effective with people who are just like me. However, in the corporate environment we are dealing every day with colleagues, prospects, clients and management – all of whom can be very different behaviorally. Not only is communication difficult where there are differences, but often individuals become hostile and conflict-oriented toward one another. Significant time, effort and corporate money is wasted because people are unable to “get along” and work together effectively toward common corporate goals. (Refer to the Brinker blog “Dealing with Difficult Clients” for a complementary discussion of this topic.)

In the next blog, we’ll take a “deeper dive” into behavior style – how you can identify it in your prospects and use this knowledge to improve your selling effectiveness.

Not Who You Think by Michael Zebrowski, Chief Operating Officer, eMoney Advisor

When asked to identify their most formidable competition, most advisors point to the advisor with the fancy office, lots of back-office support, fully integrated technology, and the book-of-business torn from the society pages. While such advisors do pose a threat, they probably are not enticing your clients so much as the computers those clients have on their desks.
The digital era has transformed the investment landscape, including the way in which clients manage their financial lives. More and more comfortable with online services for education and information, clients are intrigued by how well technology can help them organize their financial worlds, and they are migrating to direct-investment platforms, such as Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC, The Vanguard Group, Inc., Charles Schwab & Co, and TD Ameritrade, Inc.
This trend is probably more pronounced than one might imagine:
• According to Cerulli Associates, Inc., direct-investment platforms grew from $2.6 trillion in 2008 to slightly under $3.7 trillion in 2010. This increase represents a two-year growth rate of 19%.1
• In contrast, the growth rate for the traditional channel, over the same period, was only 14%. Cerulli ranks direct-investment platforms as the second biggest distribution channel after the wire houses.2
• This direct platform growth happened organically and did so in spite of a lackluster market. In 2000 eTrade and TD Ameritrade had combined assets in the $53 billion range. In 2011 they accounted for nearly $426 billion in assets.3
Growth Drivers
There are a number of factors driving the growth of personal financial management platforms, including investments made in some key areas:
• Advertising and Marketing. With nearly $1 billion a year spent on advertising and marketing combined, self-directed investment platforms have become media darlings.4 No matter what information your clients seek on the Internet, they are likely to come across an ad or sponsored material from a personal financial management provider. The same goes for watching television, reading magazines or books, or driving on the highway. Direct-investment platform ads are everywhere. With so many dollars fed by personal financial management providers into both new and old media channels, no wonder anti-advisor headlines such as “Financial Advisors Are Biased, Study Finds”5 are on the rise.
• Education. Successful personal financial management sites have incorporated “research amenities” and robust client educational materials. When a consumer enters a certain section of the website, educational content appears. Users do not have to search for more information. It is just a click away.
• Technology. Personal financial management sites are focused solely on the consumer. Made as simple as possible, they are straightforward, intuitive, and interesting. They make trading easy and inexpensive.
• Client Service. While the sophistication of the support is debatable, one point is irrefutable: “help” is waiting in the wings 24/7. Many of the top self-service investment platforms have made enormous investments in call-center infrastructure to ensure that financial professionals are available at all times to answer customer inquiries.
The increase in personal financial management systems is a trend to watch. Clients, however, will always need financial advice. Their desire to work with a knowledgeable professional, someone who can help remove obstacles and keep them on the path to fulfilling their goals, will endure. As life gets more complicated, the need to work with a trusted financial professional will only increase.
The content above is from Michael Zebrowski of eMoney Advisor has not been produced by Brinker Capital, nor does Brinker Capital make any claims or warranties to its accuracy. Views expressed are those of Michael Zebrowski of eMoney Advisor and do not necessarily reflect those of Brinker Capital.

SOURCES:
1 Osterland, Andrew. “Advisers blind to threat of direct investing, study shows.” Investment News.
February 21, 2012.
2 Ibid.
3 Pew Research, 2010.
4 The Nielsen Company, 2009.
5 Berlin, Loren. Huffington Post. March 27, 2012.

Brinker Capital Market Commentary –July 5, 2012 by Amy Magnotta

After the “risk on” environment to start the year pushed risk assets sharply higher, we experienced a pull-back in the second quarter. The deepening crisis in the Eurozone and evidence of slower global growth weighed on the global financial markets and drove investors to the relative safety of the U.S. government bond markets.

Some positive factors remain, but the macro risks continue to dominate. We expect
continued sluggish growth in the U.S. because of ongoing deleveraging, regulatory
uncertainty and the looming fiscal cliff in 2013. While U.S. corporations are in good
shape with strong earnings and high levels of cash on their balance sheets, they are hesitant to put it to work because of the uncertain environment. We still lack sustained growth in real personal incomes, which is key to greater levels of consumption and stronger economic growth going forward. While the Federal Reserve remains accommodative and stands ready to act further, the effectiveness of their monetary policy tools is diminishing.

The Eurozone has begun to take steps toward addressing their sovereign debt crisis, but more needs to be done. Policymakers must also contend with a deepening recession in the region, which will send debt/GDP ratios even higher. The need for a bailout of Spanish banks prompted leaders to announce somewhat more aggressive measures at their recent summit. It remains unclear whether these policy options will actually be put into place; however, it appears that Europe is beginning to lay out a path forward, which is a positive.

While growth in developed markets is weak, growth in emerging markets has also slowed. Investors continue to watch China’s actions to see whether a hard landing can be averted. One positive corollary of a slowdown in global growth is receding inflationary pressures and lower commodity prices. Lower retail gas prices are a boost to the disposable incomes of consumers.

The unresolved macro risks will keep the markets susceptible to bouts of volatility as we enter the second half of the year. The U.S. Presidential election will likely add to that volatility. Because of massive government intervention in the global financial markets, we will continue to be susceptible to event risk.
Amy Magnotta, Portfolio Manager
Brinker Capital Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor