Investment Insights Podcast – April 9, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded April 8, 2014):

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  • What we like: When companies buy shares, decreasing supply of stock in the market; Underlying fundamentals in economy are strong

Pages from JDT_APR2014-4

  • What we don’t like: When companies do too many initial public offerings, the supply in the marketplace dilutes the buying power of demand in the short-term setting the stage for a correction; IPO calendar is heavy

Pages from JDT_APR2014-3

  • What we are doing about it: Watching the IPO calendar carefully; intersection of the seasonal factors–slower summer months; Looking for a strong third and fourth quarter market

Pages from JDT_APR2014-2

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Charts Source: Strategas Research Partners, Investment Strategy Outlook, April 2014

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – April 1, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded March 31, 2014):

  • What we like: CBS’s “60 Minutes” segment on high-frequency trading; traders may have an unfair advantage on trade execution, so regulators looking into it
  • What we don’t like: Inflammatory aspect of segment saying all of Wall Street is rigged, but that isn’t the case; millisecond in time in trade execution doesn’t impact all types of investing; even with high-frequency traders, today we’re trading cheaper, better, and faster
  • What we are doing about it: Spread trades across custodians, brokers, etc.; try not to limit our trades to any one, specific entity; pleased with our order execution, but look forward to regulators taking a hard look at high-frequency traders

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – March 13, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded March 11, 2014):

  • What we like: Middle of business cycle; increasing amount of deals in the markets; John Maynard Keynes’ “animal spirits” influencing economists’ foresight for pick up in spring and summer; earning estimates for first quarter too low – good news; out of the woods with Fed tapering
  • What we don’t like: Uniform belief that it is all good news; consensus view means meeting numbers is not enough
  • What we are doing about it: Some rebalancing; watchful that the consensus opinion is not so well-believed.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – Unrest in Ukraine and Investment Implications

Stuart Quint, Investment Insights PodcastStuart P. Quint, CFA, Senior Investment Manager and International Strategist

Stuart joins us this week to share some comments on the developing situation in Ukraine and its impact on investors.  Click the play button below to listen in to his podcast, or read a summarized version of his thoughts below.

Podcast recorded March 3, 2014:

Ukraine’s struggles are overwhelming. Political, economic, and now military challenges confront the country. Politically and militarily speaking, the U.S. and the European Union (EU) have few tools at this time and modest willpower to oppose Russian intentions in Ukraine. And given that the ruling government is merely a caretaker for the May elections, it seems unlikely there will be a bailout package offered by the International Money Fund (IMF) any time soon. Default on existing international and local obligations appears likely in the near term.

Russia is not without its own constraints, though, as the Russian economy is directly tied to Europe. Three out of every four dollars of foreign direct investment in Russia come from Europe.[1]  The EU also remains Russia’s most important trading partner with 55% of Russian exports destined for Europe.[2]

Let’s take a look at the potential scenarios: (1) Russian annexation of the Crimea, (2) negotiated settlement with later elections that would most likely bring about a grand coalition government, probably with leanings toward Moscow, and (3) military escalation (civil war, Russian forces occupy eastern Ukraine, either of which results in a smaller Ukraine or outright disintegration as a sovereign state).

So what investment implications might this have? (1) The near term is helpful for fixed income, with commodities benefiting from any disruption of supply (oil, gas) and flight to safety (gold), and (2) negative impact most of all for European (Russia supplies 30% of European gas supply[3]) and emerging markets (mainly Russia, but also other markets with the need to import capital could suffer from currency weakness and higher interest rates demanded by investors).

A negotiated settlement involving recognition of Russian claims in exchange for a roadmap to stabilize the rest of Ukraine would reverse many of these trends.  Indeed, a similar situation occurred when Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008, but the crisis in Ukraine has potentially more serious implications given its proximity to Western Europe and that it carries a large population of over 45 million people.[4]

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – February 28, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded February 27, 2014) we are back to the traditional format of what we like, what we don’t like, and what we’re doing about it:

  • What we like: ISI Homebuilding Survey surged this week, increasing odds that the overall economy will improve as the cold weather improves
  • What we don’t like: Investors don’t know if the recent slowdown is due to the cold weather or if there’s something greater at work beyond that
  • What we are doing about it: No major changes; view remains that markets will grind upwards all year long

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – February 24, 2014

Investment Insights PodcastBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded February 20, 2014), we deviate from the traditional what we like, we don’t like, and what we’re doing about it format.

We currently find ourselves in an environment with remarkably stable prices as measured by inflation. A period that matches some of the same sentiments echoed by Warren Buffet in his 1980 Berkshire Hathaway annual report.

Often we hear bad things about emerging markets, Congress, Fed policy, etc., but we may be missing the forest for the trees. The 1970s, a period when prices were rising quickly and investors struggled to keep pace, offers an interesting perspective on today’s environment.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – February 12, 2014

Investment Insights PodcastBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded February 11, 2014, prior to Janet Yellen’s first public statements since being sworn in):

  • What we like: Emerging markets have quieted down; Improvement in the equity markets around the world, including the U.S.
  • What we don’t like: Questions on how fast the global economies are growing
  • What we are doing about it: We are hedged, but looking to remove hedges; tactical approach to Janet Yellen’s comments

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – February 7, 2014

Investment Insights PodcastBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded February 6, 2014):

  • What we like: Stability in emerging market currencies; European Central Bank fighting deflation
  • What we don’t like: Hypersensitivity to growth metrics
  • What we are doing about it: Letting natural hedging between asset classes manage volatility; remaining neutral in other portfolios; looking for a good employment number

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – January 31, 2014

Investment Insights PodcastBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded January 30, 2014):

  • What we like: Acceleration in the sales for companies; Pick-up in housing survey data; States building surplus; Global synchronized recovery.
  • What we don’t like: Emerging markets uncertainty; Investor sentiment too high
  • What we are doing about it: Hedging appropriately in tactical and strategic portfolios; Hedging against emerging market risks; Underlying currents strong.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – January 24, 2014

Investment Insights PodcastBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded January 23, 2014):

  • What we like: Strong manufacturing data out of Europe; Global synchronized recovery.
  • What we don’t like: High-sentiment indicators; global markets fairly valued, but need to see faster growth to drive equity prices higher; China slowing
  • What we are doing about it: Minor hedging in some portfolios; buying in the U.S. and European markets; looking at underlying global synchronized recovery as powerful force.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are for informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.