Investment Insights Podcast – August 13, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded August 11, 2014):

What we like: Fair amount of correction in the equity markets around the world; small correction also in U.S.

What we don’t like: U.S. stock market will likely correct closer to their 10% before the Fed finishes bond-buying program in October

What we’re doing about it: Hedging more during seasonally-weak time period; mindful of midterm elections

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – July 25, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded July 23, 2014), we alter the format to provide commentary on a recent publication from the Ned Davis Research Group.

The article references an old adage that when the public gets in the stock market, it’s too late. While that’s a bit cynical, the public is not always wrong. Recently, the bond market seems to show that over the past five years, the public is pretty smart. Here are some additional takeaways:

  • The allocation to stocks is on the high side, but not excessive
  • Cash allocation seems low
  • Flows into equities and bonds have been good

This, and other measures, lends itself to believe that the public is in (the market), but not excessively in. However, are they in because they want to be in or because the have to be in? The Fed’s zero interest rate policy seems to drive behavior of investors towards stocks–creating a feeling that the public is not in.

The takeaway is that we have to be mindful if the allocations get too big. A defense for that is diversification across different asset classes.

Click the play icon below to launch the audio recording or click here.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – July 18, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded July 16, 2014) the subject matter pertains to the Congressional Budget Office’s release of their long-term outlook. It’s important to note that this forecast is a 75-year time horizon; so focus should be on the near-term debate in Washington:

What we like: Raised the long-term growth rate of the economy; lowered healthcare costs and interest rate costs which is a positive in the near term

What we don’t like: Healthcare and interest rate costs in the long term; interest rates likely to rise eventually; Social Security likely to rise in the near future; defense spending cutbacks

What we are doing about it: As citizens, being thoughtful when exercising the right to vote; keeping an eye on higher interest rates and impact on fixed income

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Source: CNBC

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – July 1, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded June 30, 2014), Bill addresses some of the things we don’t like first, then gives greater insight into what we are doing about it:

What we don’t like: Interest rates are stubbornly low; expectations were that they would rise over the first-half of the year; low interest rates hurt retirees ability to generate income

What we like: How we are handling this financial repression

What we are doing about it: Emphasizing three themes in fixed income: yield, shorter maturity bonds, and inclusion of absolute return

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – June 26, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded June 19, 2014):

What we like: A string of good economic news; earnings season looks strong; expectations rising; Fed tapering showing that they are being reasonable about their exit

What we don’t like: Fed seems to be ignoring the increased inflation

What we are doing about it: Emphasis on real assets; watchful of a summer correction.

Click the play icon below to launch the audio recording or click here.

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – June 6, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded June 5, 2014): Bill reacts to the long-awaited policy change announcement from Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank.

What we like: Announcement met or exceeded expectations; lower interest rates; bank lending stimulated; a wide variety of positives overall

What we don’t like: Didn’t deliver the “helicopter”; fell short of establishing a program to buy securities, similar to quantitative easing

What we are doing about it: Leaning towards a more bullish posture in Europe; looking at emerging market companies that would benefit from the lower interest rates

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – May 28, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded May 22, 2014), Bill gives a review on the controversial book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Piketty:

What we like: Emphasis on returns to capital (savings); savers will continue to be rewarded.

What we don’t like: Modern-socialistic state belief using high tax rates in order to deal with societal inequalities.

What we are doing about it: We encourage opening savings accounts for children and grandchildren; fund 401(k)s to the max; watching if some of the societal inequalities as outlined by Piketty are dealt with sooner than later.

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Embracing Innovation: Envestnet Advisor Summit Wrap-up

VradenburgGreg Vradenburg, Managing Director, Investment Services

Last week we were honored to be one of the Premier Sponsors at the Envestnet Advisor Summit in Chicago. The theme of the event was “the next big thing” and it was evident everywhere. Envestnet Chairman and CEO Judson Bergman opened up the conference by talking about how advisors need to be disruptive innovators in order to succeed and overcome looming industry challenges. He stressed the importance of embracing technology, building brand and perfecting marketing and reminded us of past giants such as MySpace, BlackBerry and Blockbuster that did not take these steps and were not aware of happenings in the new markets and seemingly fell behind.

Envestnet President Bill Crager also talked about how the role of the advisor will become increasingly important in the next five years. As older advisors begin to exit the business, Crager projects that the average advisors assets will increase from $90 million today to $145 million in 2020. (Source: “9 Takeaways from the Envestnet Advisor Summit”, Financial Planning, May 20, 2014)

Conference attendees were also introduced to the Envestnet Institute, an online advisor education portal that features white paper, videos and webinars. Brinker Capital is proud to be one of the contributing content partners for this exciting new unified education portal.

Finally we were pleased by the informative “Liquid Alternatives Panel” that our CIO, Bill Miller, participated in. All panelists agreed the education around alternatives is key for both clients and advisors. Alternatives firmly fill a role in a portfolio by providing greater portfolio diversification as well as access to unique opportunities and strategies; however, they are just a piece of the overall pie.

Our thanks go out to Envestnet for hosting such a great event that allowed us to network with colleagues, investment professionals and Envestnet representatives! We look forward to next year’s Advisor Summit!

Investment Insights Podcast – May 13, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded May 12, 2014):

What we like: Bob Doll’s comments on favoring the economy more than the stock market; positive economic data post-winter

What we don’t like: Stock market no longer a bargain, now more fully valued

What we are doing about it: Focus more on larger themes and individual active managers; looking out for potential rise in interest rates during summer

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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.

Investment Insights Podcast – April 30, 2014

Bill MillerBill Miller, Chief Investment Officer

On this week’s podcast (recorded April 25, 2014):

The sentiments below were inspired by Dalbar’s 20th annual investor behavior analysis. You can read a summary of the study here, via ThinkAdvisor.

What we don’t like: Investors have underperformed the markets, often due to fear and poor timing

What we like: Potential market correction during the summer; important for investors to heed the advice of their advisors and stick to investment objectives

What we are doing about it: Focus on the positives like energy renaissance, manufacturing renaissance, and goals-based solutions

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Source: Dalbar, ThinkAdvisor

The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.