Bill Miller, Chief Investment Officer
On this week’s podcast (recorded July 23, 2014), we alter the format to provide commentary on a recent publication from the Ned Davis Research Group.
The article references an old adage that when the public gets in the stock market, it’s too late. While that’s a bit cynical, the public is not always wrong. Recently, the bond market seems to show that over the past five years, the public is pretty smart. Here are some additional takeaways:
- The allocation to stocks is on the high side, but not excessive
- Cash allocation seems low
- Flows into equities and bonds have been good
This, and other measures, lends itself to believe that the public is in (the market), but not excessively in. However, are they in because they want to be in or because the have to be in? The Fed’s zero interest rate policy seems to drive behavior of investors towards stocks–creating a feeling that the public is not in.
The takeaway is that we have to be mindful if the allocations get too big. A defense for that is diversification across different asset classes.
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The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Holdings are subject to change.