Did Chairman Bernanke Seal the Reelection of Barack Obama?

Andy Rosenberger, Brinker Capital

Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan wasted no time in criticizing the Federal Reserve’s newest measure to stimulate the U.S. economy through additional monetary policy, otherwise known as Quantitative Easing (QE3). Within hours of the Fed announcement, Mitt Romney likened the need for more easing to failed Obama policies while Paul Ryan later said it represented “sugar-high economics”. The two fiscally minded candidates are understandably frustrated with the new measures by the Fed.

According to intrade.com, a market-based prediction market whereby speculators can gamble real money on the outcome of future events, the probability of President Obama’s reelection jumped significantly after the announcement by the Fed. The spike in reelection odds is the largest since the death of Osama bin Laden in May of last year.

According to intrade.com, President Obama now has over a 66% chance of winning the election this November, an increase of over 5% since the QE3 announcement. With such a dramatic move in reelection odds, the news of new quantitative easing is certainly a blow to the Romney campaign and a major reason why Mitt Romney has publicly said he would not reappoint Chairman Bernanke if given the chance.

Chart Source: www.intrade.com, 9/17/12

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